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Time to Exploit Deceptive China’s Fault Lines

Fri, 25 Sep 2020 Cdr Sandeep Dhawan
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Today every free country is looking at China in disbelief. The CPC and XI Jinping have opened up a number of fronts, more than they can afford. China faces humongous challenges in the aftermath of the pandemic. Unemployment is going through the ceiling, and demonstrations against the government are on the rise. PLA veterans are dissatisfied, and Wuhan citizens are still looking for millions of missing relatives. Anger amongst Uighur is likely to implode anytime soon, and Tibetans are ready to move beyond peaceful demonstrations. Hong Kong is on the boil. Indian and Taiwanese forces are at the highest alert.

So what could be better than giving a call for ’Pax Sinica’. Taking the nationalism to such heights that citizens give up their anger and pain and look up to the leadership in awe.

These methods may work within China but among other nations it has provoked strong anti-China emotions. The fault lines in the Chinese armour are visible to all and ready for the exploitation.

Xi Jinping – Fault Line One

 “One does not establish a dictatorship in order to safeguard a revolution; one makes the revolution in order to establish the dictatorship” – George Orwell

Xi Jinping is the son of Xi Zhongxun, who was Mao Zedong’s comrade-in-arms and head of the Communist Party’s propaganda division. When Xi was nine years old, his father was expelled by Chairman Mao because of his disloyalty. During the course of the Cultural Revolution, Xi’s father was sent to prison. Fifteen years old Xi was amongst the nearly thirty million other ‘sent-down youths’. All the youths were forced to work in the Chinese countryside for ‘re-education’ as part of Mao’s ‘Down to the Countryside’ movement.

Senior Xi was restored after Mao’s death, however, during a Politburo meeting in 1987, he was stripped of power for the last time. He was allowed to live in obscurity, until his death, in 2002. These childhood traumas must have left psychological scars on Xi Jinping’s persona.

Xi Jinping has ventured out on a similar disastrous path that the tormentor of his father (Mao) had laid for China. Mao’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ devastated China internally. The equivalent of that, Xi’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), is destroying economies across the globe. Print and electronic media, across the globe, were paid to spread China’s propaganda on BRI. The beautiful videos and write-ups convinced countries to get involved in the schemes they never needed. ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ was another step in this direction to achieve the heights of the greatness of Mao’s ‘Cultural Revolution’.

With his blitzkrieg, Xi wants China to forget about the original poster boy of China’s astronomical rise, Deng Xiaoping. Deng’s principle was simple “cross the river by feeling the stones,” implying that even though China was acquiring new heights — it needed to stay grounded. With his misadventures and disruptive strategies, Xi Jinping has become a liability for China.

Over Dependence on Ancient Wisdom – Fault Line Two

Stir up the Waters to Catch a Fish: Create confusion and use this turmoil to further one’s own goals. (It is easier to seize power when the chaos is unleashed). However, China forgets that such cunning scheming doesn’t work in the international environment.

In the months of May-June, when Hong Kong was under the strictest lockdown to control the spread of Coronavirus, there was sinister planning going on in the ’Forbidden City’ – Hong Kong Security Law. Though the Hong Kong demonstrations had come to a standstill due to the pandemic, the alert nations of the world needed a further distraction. China started its buildup of forces along the Indo-Tibet border. Then came the decisive moment. On 15 June 2020, during a regular standoff, PLA soldiers attacked Indian soldiers with spiked sticks and clubs. Twenty Indian soldiers and a large number of PLA soldiers lost their lives. The situation was extremely tense and the world was on the edge.

Anticipating imminent war, the world was focused on the Indo-Tibet border. On 30th June, China introduced the ’Hong Kong Security Law’. Soon, thereafter peace talks between India and China began. The world heaved a sigh of relief. The war had been averted. The Hong Kong security law didn’t attract much attention, other than some hollow threats by European nations.

China could employ the same strategy to invade Taiwan (or in China’s words – ’solve the Taiwan issue’). The most favourable time would be around the US presidential elections. The world’s sole superpower – the United States, would be busy. The PLA forces positioned at the Indo-Tibet border would indulge in a bigger and bolder skirmish with Indian forces. It would build up the hysteria to just short of war, along with extensive military exercises in the South China Sea (SCS).

While the world would be focusing on the tense standoff between two nuclear neighbours, one of the SCS exercises could turn into a real invasion of Taiwan, taking everyone by surprise. PLA Second Artillery Corps currently holds over 1500 missiles for the sole purpose of use against Taiwan. The exercise would have live missile drills wherein one of the drills would become an actual missile attack. This would be followed by PLAAF and PLAN using both aircraft and amphibious vehicles to mount an actual invasion.

Tibet – Fault Line Three

Tragedy should be utilized as a source of strength. No matter what sort of difficulties, how painful experience is, if we lose our hope, that’s our real disaster” – Dalai Lama

Tibetan dream of having a free country of their own could very well be a reality. Soon after the Chinese aggression stance on the Indo-Tibet border, India had moved the specialized units to the Pangong Lake. Since India was focused on talks, no aggression was shown by the Indian Army. The Chinese were adamant and not ready to mend their deceptive ways. Towards the end of August, taking the Chinese by surprise, as a preemptive measure, the Indian Army occupied the ridgeline on the finger 4. The location is north of the Pangong Tso lake, well within the Indian side of LAC. During the action, Tenzin Nyima, of Special Frontier Force (SFF), laid his life for the motherland.

The loss of life brought to fore the existence of an elusive SFF. Thousands of Tibetan refugees are part of the dreaded Special Forces. The existence of the SFF has sent the PLA in a tailspin. Though they are calling the SFF, cannon fodder for the Indian army, lengthy debates, and analysis are being undertaken by the National Strategy Institute, Tsinghua University, and many other think tanks.

The loss of life has not only revealed the existence of SFF but has given rise to nationalism in Tibet and all across the globe, wherever Tibetans live. China is scared of an uprising from within. They are also aware that this time around India would not back down from providing help. To counter an uprising, the Chinese have taken surveillance to a different level all over Tibet. The pervasive new security system is called GRID (Wangge in Chinese). The system specifically monitors former prisoners, exile returnees, and daily activities of normal citizens. There is an increase in the activities of volunteer security groups called “Red Armband Patrols”. The nervousness amongst the Chinese security forces as well as CCP is indicative of the likelihood of a major uprising in Tibet, in the near future.

Indian Ocean Region – Fault Line Four

China confronts immense strategic challenges in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). However, it doesn’t have ways and means of overcoming those challenges in the present scenario. These dynamics change the equation between India and China. China is the most powerless in the Malacca Strait since 82% of China’s oil imports pass through this strait. The next chokepoint is the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf. China meets 40% of oil imports through this strait. The export-oriented Chinese economy is also heavily IOR dependent and 80% of those exports pass through this strait.

Till the time China doesn’t solve the Taiwan problem, it is tied down in the SCS. It doesn’t have enough platforms to spare for the IOR. That is the reason behind China’s desperation and frustration with regard to CPEC and Gwadar (Pakistan). CPEC is nowhere near completion and vulnerable to sabotage from India. This dilemma and frustration forced China to tie-up with Iran to develop the port city of Jask. China is also very keen to acquire the Iranian port Chabahar, presently being developed by India. Jask and Chabahar are better and closely located ports to the Strait of Hormuz than Gwadar.

With these investments China is inching towards resolving the ‘Hormuz Dilemma’ but the ‘Malacca Dilemma’ remains. In fact, China has antagonized all the maritime neighbours beyond repair, except for the Philippines. As per renowned naval author Larry Bond, China has a real issue with regards to India closing the Malacca Strait. If India wants to cut off the Chinese trade, all that they have to do is blockade the Malacca Straits with IN ships. Nothing gets through that way. Since none of the alternate routes are anywhere near completion, to counter India, China is supplying eight S20 diesel-electric submarines (SSK) and four Type-054 A/P frigates to Pakistan. Beyond that they are helpless and the whole situation is killing the Chinese naval planners.

Lack of Combat Experience: PLA, PLAN, PLAAF – Fault Line Five

In the last decade or so, Chinese armed forces have amassed a remarkable high-tech arsenal, however, its proficiency in using these machines remains unclear. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has recently upgraded its structure to theatre commands. It is yet to be seen how cohesive and effective this shift has been.

Despite these impressive reforms, PLA conspicuously lacks combat experience. The PLA last fought a war with Vietnam nearly 40 years ago. The seasoned Vietnamese military demolished a botched Chinese invasion in 1979. The ghost of that defeat still haunts the PLA. Xi is desperately trying to overcome those shortcomings before he launches his Taiwan invasion. He is getting the inexperienced PLA ready by bringing them face to face with the battle-hardened Indian Army.

The top generals of the PLA have never fought a war. There are very few PLA combat veterans who remain in service. And even they will all retire within the next few years, which implies that the PLA will soon have no personnel with firsthand combat experience. The PLA has named the decades of peace and prosperity as ‘Peace Disease’. That clearly demonstrates how underprepared and under confident the PLA is.

Conclusion

For the first time since the end of the Cultural Revolution, the CCP faces a real threat to its existence. The enhanced cognitive entrenchment is forcing them to commit a series of disastrous strategic errors. If China doesn’t mend its ways and means of existing in the civilized world, then the civilized world is going to exploit these fault lines:

  • Highlighting and giving widespread publicity about Chinese chauvinism, atrocities, racial discrimination, threats, disrespect for the local customs, rules and regulations in Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Laos, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Pakistan, Iran, and African countries would be at its peak in the coming months. This would have a devastating effect on Chinese business interests.
  • If the PLA foolishly applies the “Samson Option” and invades Taiwan, it would do a disservice to its nation. They must consider the following consequences:

1. Humongous human and economic (tens of billions of dollars) cost of war and post-war isolation.

2. Likely significant regional or even global economic depression.

3. The costs of garrisoning and maintaining Taiwan would be astronomically high in comparison to the costs of invading.

4. The amalgamation of the PLA and the ROC forces would be a nightmare for CCP. Already disgruntled PLA  veterans would become more aggressive in case ROC veterans receiving higher pensions.

5. Post-invasion the PLA counterinsurgency forces would be tied down to Taiwan, bleeding the financial resources and leaving other Chinese borders vulnerable.

6. The crisis could also trigger political struggle on the mainland and may result in the ouster of Xi Jinping.

  • PLA’s book learning or training exercises cannot compare to the stress of an extended deployment in a combat zone. Battle-hardened Indian forces have outmanoeuvred the PLA in all its recent aggressions. Indian forces should not take the Chinese bait and provide them with insight into the Indian tactical experience and expertise.
  • PLAN is selling itself as the largest navy in the world with 350 ships. However, neither they have the tonnage nor have a well-trained crew. The Chinese navy lacks combat experience and extensive deployments. Since they lack peacetime aircraft carrier operations experience, their wartime carrier deployment may result in disastrous performance. A RAND study in 2017 had assessed that the US submarines alone could sink 41% of Chinese amphibious ships.
  • PLAAF just like PLAN has inadequate practical experience, both in combat and in deployments. PLAAF pilots, especially lack the experience in operating in hostile high altitude terrains. China’s high altitude airfields would further hamper their fighter operations in Tibet.
  • CPEC and Gwadar port would be highly vulnerable to the Indian Air Force and Indian Navy attacks and are the most unsuitable assets in wartime.
  • Hong Kong’s future as an international financial center is now under grave threat. China will face long-term consequences.
  • The threats and warnings issued by the Chinese embassies and Foreign Ministry against various sovereign nations are further harming China’s case. Australia, France, Germany, India, Japan, the UK, and the USA may form a new NATO and come after China with a stronger resolve.
  • The present situation clearly demonstrates that there are no takers of China’s foggy vision of “community of common destiny”.

Unfortunately for the CCP, now it has to contend with far more determined adversaries. Worse still, Australia, India, Japan, the US, and the European nations are willing to accept huge short-term economic distress to gain a long-term strategic edge over China. This indicates that greed has lost its primacy. In the United States, experts are calling China their biggest strategic mistake in the last 40 years. The ‘decoupling’ of the Chinese economy with the world has already commenced. If CCP hasn’t understood the danger and implications of Xi Jinping’s misadventures, then even the monkey God ’Sun Wukong’ cannot help them. Barring few nations, the rational nations are more than willing to write off the access to the Chinese market, loans, and investment in pursuit of broader geopolitical objectives and national sovereignty.

 

The views expressed are of the author and may or may not represent the views and policies of Chanakya Forum.

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POST COMMENTS (55)

Marilee Wein

Oct 27, 2020
Simply, thank you

Vivek Pathak

Oct 14, 2020
I have been following your articles very regularly and at the outset I would like to compliment you for your balanced views and very well researched and articulately written pieces. It is a pleasure to read them. The reason why I chose to comment on this particular piece is because in the series of three articles that had been earlier written by you on " Who Will Tame China, Part I, II and III, you had concluded by saying that not one country is capable of doing so alone. The US and Russia were ruled out for reasons that you yourself have amplified. You also stated that it has to be a conglomeration of like minded countries which would be required to bell the cat. The prediction made in September 2018 seems to have come true in view of the steps that are now being initiated by the " Quad ". At that point of time, nobody had even thought of Covid 19 and the Wuhan virus as some people allude to it now. With the world opinion so strongly against China at this point of time, would you like to share your line of thought as to what would be the future of China in the years to come and do you think that it is time for them to be held accountable for the pandemic unleashed. If so, what do you think should be expected.

Ramakrishnan Venkat

Oct 04, 2020
Sandeep, it is very interesting to read your analysis on faultlines of China and what would be the reaction from the rest of the world. In depth analysis indicate your dedicated work and focussed write up on the faultlines. Keep up the good work and I am sure your article enlightens the wisdom of power in our home ground. Thanks and Best regards

Ramachandran

Oct 02, 2020
Excellent insights into the the Chinese fault lines. I am sure they are aware of it too. That apart they do have their strengths and hope our focus is on neutralizing those. Kudos Sandeep on the well researched article

SHAMIT BISWAS

Sep 30, 2020
A gem of an article presenting new insights and thought processes regarding the Chinese and their recent actions. With the rift in the US- China relationship and the great hidden internationally invested wealth of the CCP leaders at risk, along with internal unrest and the rebellion protests in Hong Kong, there was no option but to posture aggressively and take away attention from these matters. However, the greatest miscalculation made has been about the will of the Indian people and government to engage in a possible war with China. There is a new guard and a new reality and a bloody nose is just round the corner for the aggressor. These fault lines must be intelligently explored and exploited by the world intelligence community. May be we will all be better off with seven smaller but democratic Northern neighbours in the long run. Not to mention the fragmentation reality of our Western cousin. Kudos to the author for such clarity of thought and expression

Sanjay, Jakarta

Sep 30, 2020
Congratulations for an excellent analysis, backed by facts and data! It also speaks about strategies and counter steps. India has stood up to China’s threat and Indian’s self esteem is at all time high. Our army and leaders have this time worked together to save the pride of our motherland. Reading the content here brings us close to the reality. Looking forward to more such analysis and articles. Great work captain !!

Pradeep

Sep 30, 2020
Well analysed.. However, these faultlines need to be exploited and not much movement is seen so far. A few puerile comments apart, except maybe the US, nothing seems to have moved. India as usual is circumspect and cautious even in its comments. While China violates each agreement with impunity and comes up with a new demand, we stick to our stand taken far back in time, as if our lives depended on them. We need to change our strategy.

Cdr Munish Kumar Paul

Sep 29, 2020
Excellent and very well researched article, as usual, Sandeep. Keep it up.

Praveen Bhaik

Sep 28, 2020
Very well researched and even better the way it has been put across. Wonderfully well written and articulated. Keep them coming. Regards 🙏

Rajeev Negi

Sep 28, 2020
Time will tell whether the Chinese faultlines are exploited by India and the other countries. The scope is limited by the access to Chinese people over the internet. Moreover, will the present opponents of China stand together when push comes to shove? The article is well researched and the faultlines in China well covered. A very illuminating write up.

PK Misra

Sep 28, 2020
Dear Cdr Sandeep, it is a pleasure to read your well articulated article. All the fault lines are discomforting to china. If China takes fault line four seriously, they should not indulge in misadventure. Further, lack of battle experience is going to hit them below the belt. As such, expansionism is a thing of bygone era.

Harpal

Sep 28, 2020
Well researched & Nice article. However, we should not become complacent. Carry on the good work

SANJAY BODKHA

Sep 28, 2020
A WELL RESEARCHED ARTICLE BRINGING MUCH NEEDED SOLUTIONS TO CONTAIN CHINA..NICE READ.

Vinod Sivaraman

Sep 27, 2020
Very interesting. But this kinda presumes that the chinks aren't strategising and planning ahead. They currently enjoy both technical as well as numerical superiority vis-a-vis India, Oz, Indonesia, Japan and in some areas the US and most of the rest of the NATO nations. They only lack actual combat experience.... which is usually the case after any prolonged peace. It just takes surviving some engagements, to become veterans. With shrinking population growth rates, it's my belief that the EU nations, the ME Islamist nations and most of the rest of Asia will step back rather than engage in military confrontation with the chinks. So let's not be too quick to write off Chi's shenanigans as unwinnable antics. He just might emerge ahead if we aren't careful enough to stay with the initiative. But, that's a costly way to run a nation and the chinks have already exploited that crack by loosing the virus on the rest of the world.

WingCoMats

Sep 27, 2020
Congratulations Sir, on yet another well researched, well thought of & well articulated write up. It would however, in my opinion, only be prudent for us as a Nation not to bank too much on trying to underplay/undermine/discredit the chini Armed Forces (PLA,PLAN,PLAAF) for the sole reason of lack of actual combat experience. While that, definitely is a factor - our age old fascination for eulogising own capabilities based solely on the trust that we as a Nation place in our soldiers, with scant regard to their operational needs and value for their lives otherwise, doesn't augur well for the future. There's no doubting, the Indian soldier stands taller than most across the globe as regards professionalism and love for the Nation - what also needs to be accepted and urgently rectified is our MINIMALIST approach to military preparedness and lack of strategic vision as regards matters military. DETERRENCE is passe....DISSUASION is the need of the times. And that translates into being prepared 24x7 forever. With annual defence budget at a historic low, and then running helter skelter after being territorially compromised brings to the fore for the Nth time, the chronic myopia that's been ailing us since ages. We need to sort that out on priority and what better time to do so than NOW, with the enemy at the gates, and that, with an intent, not to budge for a change. No amount of wishful thinking would ever save us the blemishes. Knowing the enemy's vulnerability is one part, to have plans to counter him on all fronts - even better. But to actively build capacity and be seen as being capable to deliver what we plan/discuss is the only thing that eventually matters. Must remember - the enemy sees as deep inside of us as we do of them....if not more. Looking forward to many more from you. Best wishes and regards always.😊

Anna Waldherr

Sep 27, 2020
Riveting.

Vedu

Sep 27, 2020
Dear Sandy, Thanks for a refreshing perspective on the Chinese issue and the way forward. As you rightly bring out the primary fault line is Xi. Some of the other fault lines worth considering in my opinion are Tiwan, corruption in the govt / military officials that has led to great purges and collapse of their banking system due to NPA. Keep writing.

A Jhaver

Sep 27, 2020
A well researched and written article giving understanding of Chinese weakness. Looking forward to some more from you Sandeep

Capt Rammohan Oka

Sep 27, 2020
lots of research is done and vert well written, keep it up,

Narinder

Sep 27, 2020
A very well compiled article with great insight into various faultlines. However, it is important that we don't lower our guard and trust Chinese, who in the guise of talks and normalization of relations, could backstab us by salami slicing tactics on our borders. It's important that we remain proactive and have a bargaining chip available to us against China by occupying vantage positions along Indo- Tibet border. Also, time has come that we start exposing China at International forums for its many follies and stop advocating India China Bhai Bhai spirit. PM Modi has made a start but we need to be more aggressive.

Naren

Sep 27, 2020
Chins has innumerable faultlines....to believe that expansionist policies would work in today's world order would be being naive. ..Russia cd do in Crimea etc because the population there comprised of over 50% Russians....China has walked into a minefield of its own...their economic collapse is also imminent...they have multiple fissures that are gaping and irrepairable....all in all an unenviable situation for them

Rajesh

Sep 27, 2020
Well written article. Good insight in to the happenings and the strategy to adopt. Need of the day is to hit them where it hurts the most. The dictators were always over confident and often boastful, could see in gaddafi, saddam etc. The beginning of the end seems to have started if they don't change their course.

Neelotpal Mukherjee

Sep 27, 2020
I have been reading all most all articles by Cdr Dhawan and each one is a master piece by itself. This article is also of the same elk. Cdr Dhawan has deep China centric geopolitical knowledge add to it a methodical research and an acumen to analyse, you get such pure gem of thought process. Cdr Dhawan's thought process hope should help our country to decide on a strategy on dealing with China. What I think, our greatest mistake was our Pak centric strategy. Abinitio our strategy sud have been China centric. The political and strategic planners of that era erred in their thinking by design or due to pure ignorance. In 1949, China was nowhere as far as economic and military power is concerned. Today we as a nation are paying for that grave mistake of our fore-fathers. Keep writing such well researched analysis with clear-cut solutions, Cdr Dhawan. 👍🙏

Anurag Chandra

Sep 27, 2020
The fault lines in China today have been described incisively. Though, one has a vague idea about the fault lines, they are articulated in a very concise manner. Reading through the piece, one can only start thinking about the various options available to the international community in general and India in particular to counter China’s adventurism

Atul Dewan

Sep 27, 2020
A clear articulation of China's fault lines makes it very easy to comprehend the big geopolitical game being played out. Congratulations! on summarising it so beautifully. China is very proactive and aggressively shaping a positive world opinion for itself through its dealings with compromised media across the globe. Our focus must stay on our national interests and ways of mitigating the Chinese malafide interests. Looking forward to more posts from you...........

Joseph Mathew

Sep 27, 2020
A very well written article that has brought out various external issues that are likely to influence Chinese decision making and maybe even force a change in the leadership of the CCP.

GP Singh

Sep 27, 2020
Excellent analysis. China's approach to establish world supremacy is obsolete. Modi is right in saying that the era of expansionism is over. China is a real threat to world peace.

Rajiv

Sep 27, 2020
The lesser used terminology "Indo Tibetan Border" should be picked up by all the news channels from this article to inject into Indian and Tibetan mind set of the expansionist policy of Chinese. The nuclear dimension as a face saver for the Chinese in case of setback on most of the fronts is something to ponder for the international community. Encroachment of Nepali, Pakistani, Bhutanese land surreptitiously by Chinese will go in whose favour? These well researched articles of your has once again made us interested in geo political and military matters. Salute you for your passion. Doing a great service keep it up.

JJ Nijhawan

Sep 27, 2020
The Fault lines pointers maybe the lessons they will draw from your write-up.👏👏👏👍

Anil Kumar Tomer

Sep 27, 2020
Another of very well articulated piece by Cdr Dhawan. His views on China with present geopolitical situation is very nicely and methodically put up. He continues to keep us informed by his sharp analyatical skills and deep knowledge of geopolitics with specific reference to China and its antics around the world. The country would end up gaining in big way by such think tanks. Keep them.coming sir and I look forward to reading more of your analysis and views in future.

Anil Kumar Tomer

Sep 27, 2020
Another very well articulated views by Cdr Sandeep Dhawan. His analysis on issues which have become more relevant today than ever before with the mood of the world with present geopolitical development is extraordinary. One of the great sharp analyatical minds of our time, he has so methodically co. Great work sir and let more of this coming.

Javed Rizvi

Sep 27, 2020
An extensive research and detail Analysis are done on the subject. I think, the author has putting in lot of hard work. My Best wishes and many Congratulations to the author for writing a Wonderful and very informative Write up. Very well done..

Santosh

Sep 27, 2020
Well researched and lucidly articulated analysis. As usual , if I may add. The big picture comes out clearly and simplifies the Chinese thinking while also bringing out the missteps taken by the Chinese leadership in the times of a global pandemic.

Gp Capt TR Ravi VM (Ret'd)

Sep 27, 2020
Article gives a thorough analysis on Chinese tactics.....very relevant to today's scenario to understand it's proscribed activities. Bravo

Hemraj Parmar

Sep 27, 2020
Articulative and incisive analysis. Well done 👍

Deovrat Pagay

Sep 27, 2020
A very well analyses article. I hope this article tickles the minds of people who matter....a good opportunity for India to grow as a power hub in the continent Kudos Sandeep...!!

Gp Capt C Subramaniam

Sep 27, 2020
Excellent analysis.. Well articulated!!

Nilay Kukreti

Sep 27, 2020
Nice write up! We are in for interesting (and, hopefully, peaceful) times ahead!

Nitesh

Sep 27, 2020
Very well analysed and highly researched article. Thank you so much for doing the tremendous amount of research on this topic and articulating all the facts in a very narrative manner.

Capt Indra Narayan Khan

Sep 27, 2020
Very well analysed and appreciated. The entire chessboard is layed. It would be extremely difficult to tame the Dragon 🐉 unless it implodes and that seems to be difficult. Laddakh issue is nothing but Window shopping and measuring the depth of our Political Will. If they get it it's a bonus. Prime objective is Hongkong, Taiwan and US. We have to have our plans in place. End Oct and Nov is the likely time when the CHINA VIRUS 😷 in India will be at it's peak.

Capt Indra Narayan Khan

Sep 27, 2020
Very well written article with excellent appreciation. It well clear that you have diagnosed the minds of CCP and PLA. But the problem in beating them is the world's action at present in most areas are reactionary in nature which insufficient to break them unless China implodes from inside which they have already tamed it with sinicization and imprisonment of youths in XINJIANG and TIBET. Now with the fortification of the zone and bringing all provincial forces directly under them, imploding of China is becoming very difficult. Moving of US, UK and France in SCS and in Taiwan' s water has created some stir. Now it's for the Dragon 🐉 to respond.

Simon Templar

Sep 27, 2020
"Twenty Indian soldiers and a large number of PLA soldiers lost their lives." I read somewhere that the commanding officer (maybe aCOL or LTC?) of the Indian force was killed. That is no small thing if true.

Simon Templar

Sep 27, 2020
"If India wants to cut off the Chinese trade, all that they have to do is blockade the Malacca Straits with IN ships. " Were it so easy. I know you know "the enemy gets a vote."

Judy Campbell

Sep 27, 2020
Great article! President Trump deserves the credit for the change in attitude of the U.S. towards China. Before he came along, it wasn't on the radar. Biden has spent much of his career selling America out to China. I shudder to think what will happen if he wins. I have learned so much that I didn't know from this article, fascinating, thank you!

Raju Bhadbhade

Sep 26, 2020
Very well researched and written. Feel USA has perceptably changed its tune from being china centric to china realistic and will perhaps see more hardened attitude from them towards china no matter if they have to swallow the monetary bullet.

Anjan K Datta

Sep 26, 2020
Very well-researched Sandeep. Liked your easy-to-understand manner of writing, on such a complex topic. Keep it up!

Shalini K Dhingra

Sep 26, 2020
Very well written- the narrative makes it easy to follow and appreciate the line of thought

Gp Capt Sharad Sharma (Retd)

Sep 25, 2020
A well-articulated analysis, with many key takeaways...my own submission would revolve around the aspect of pushing China into a strategic cul-de-sac. No doubt the collective international effort at 'containing' China may well be manifest now, only time will tell what real intentions lie beneath those slit-eyes...inscrutable as these are. Meanwhile, the other strategic chessboard move by the US, namely, the dispensation called as the 'Indo-Pacific'...will only ensure that WW III would be played out, in 'hard-terms' of a military conflagration, far, far away from the American shores...thereby, ensuring the survival of the American Continent, if the fission/fusion-based warheads are launched.

TIME TO EXPLOIT DECEPTIVE CHINA’S FAULT LINES - Insightful Geopolitics

Sep 25, 2020
[…] Continue reading my article on CHANAKYA FORUM India’s Leading Think-Tank Forum on Geological and Defence Matters: https://chanakyaforum.org/time-to-exploit-deceptive-chinas-fault-lines […]

K Sreenivas

Sep 25, 2020
Well written Sandeep. Hope Xi realises that Peace makes him stronger than War will.

Raman

Sep 25, 2020
Brilliant in-depth analysis. The middle kingdom should look for a middle path between its ambitions and reality.

Harish Nayani

Sep 25, 2020
Yet another crystal clear and minutely analysed appreciation by the author. It puts things in the right perspective and I would very strongly recommend this to not just people in the business of strategy and get politics but even a lay person who wishes to have an insight into the present Imbruglia. Bravo Zulu, Cdr Dhawan!

Wendell Bruges

Sep 25, 2020
A well-articulated and succinct article. I highly appreciate the two aspects that you have presented. One, regarding a skirmish with India closer to the US elections and while the world is distracted, invasion of Taiwan. Another one is lack of combat experience of PLA is the reason behind the standoff with India so that PLA gets some hands-down combat experience before attacking Taiwan. Very innovative. Keep it up.

बी राजा

Sep 25, 2020
गहराई से लिखा हुआ लेख । सभी विषयों पर संक्षिप्त एवं सटीक टिप्पणी। जो इन गतिविधियों में academic रुचि रखते है, उनका ज्ञानवर्धन ज़रूर होगा।

DS Gahlaut

Sep 25, 2020
Kudos to the author for precise analysis of current Chinese situation. In my opinion, the outcome of US presidential election will be a major factor in deciding the future course of action. In addition, many EU countries are known to place economical greed above larger interests of the world.

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